Many of you may recall that this year\u2019s hurricane season was predicted to be more active than normal. Well, it has turned out to be something of a dud as far as hurricane activity in the Atlantic is concerned.<\/p>\n
As the season heads into the historic peak of activity, the start of the season may enter the record books as the quietest start to any Atlantic hurricane season in decades.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt certainly looks like pretty much of a forecast bust,\u201d said Jeff Masters, a hurricane expert and director of meteorology at the Weather Underground.<\/p>\n
\u201cVirtually all the (forecast) groups were calling for above-normal hurricanes and intensive hurricanes and we haven\u2019t even had a hurricane at all, with the season half over,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
With records going back to 1851, Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the U.S. National Hurricane Center, said there had been only 17 years when the first Atlantic hurricane formed after September 4.<\/p>\n
In an average season the first hurricane shows up by August 10, usually followed by a second hurricane on August 28 and the first major hurricane by September 4.<\/p>\n
Since the dawn of the satellite era in the mid-1960s, Feltgen said the latest date for the first hurricane to arrive was set by Gustav when it made its debut on September 11, 2002.<\/p>\n
Nine named storms have been spawned by the 2013 season so far, including Fernand, which killed 13 people in central Mexico late last month.<\/p>\n
Most of the storms have been small, weak systems, however, proving an embarrassment to experts who had predicted an active season in reports that are eagerly awaited y the insurance and energy industries.<\/p>\n
\u201cStatistical models can generally reasonably well replicate hurricane activity\u2026but there are always going to be years when you bust,\u201d said Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University climatologist who heads a team that issues one of the most closely watched long-range hurricane forecasts.<\/p>\n
Colorado State University slightly lowered its seasonal forecast on August 2. But it still said 2013 would see above-average activity, with eight hurricanes and three that develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the five-step Saffir-Simpson intensity scale.<\/p>\n
Other prominent forecasts, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), were predicting an \u201cabove normal\u201d season last month. An average season has six hurricanes.<\/p>\n
Feltgen cautioned it was still too early to write off 2013 as a year when tropical weather unpredictable.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are at mid-point of the six-month hurricane season,\u201d he said. \u201cIt is a mistake to believe that the second half of the season would resemble the first half.\u201d<\/p>\n
The first hurricane in 2001, Erin, only formed on September 9, Feltgen said. \u201cThat season ended with 15 named storms including nine hurricanes, four of which became major hurricanes.\u201d<\/p>\n